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About 100,000 people seeking an abortion will not be able to access a provider in the first year of a Roe reversal. As a result, 75,000 of them are likely to give birth, according to forecast published on May 6, 2022by Caitlin Myers, professor of economics at Middlebury College and co-director of MiddData. Myers’ predictions are based on state policy changes at the time of publication.

These predictions also assume that people from banning states who request an abortion are able to get an appointment with the remaining providers, which Myers notes may not be possible due to high demand and long waiting times.

The influx of abortion seekers to so-called clinical states — or states that have legal protections for abortion in place — is expected to be significant if Roe v. Wade was canceled. Projecting which states will see the largest increases has everything to do with geography.

A large influx of abortion seekers is expected to seek services in North Carolina due to its proximity to many southeastern states where abortion is certain or likely to be banned, with Roe now canceled. But unlike Illinois, the the legal status of abortion in North Carolina is precarious.

According to Amber Gavin, vice president of advocacy and operations at The choice of a woman, a group of abortion clinics based in North Carolina and Florida. And with Roe upside down, Gavin expects those numbers to continue to rise.

“I think we’re going to see probably a lot more than 50% to 80% [more] patients than what we’re seeing right now,” she told Stacker in a May interview.

Gavin also said A Woman’s Choice clinics are considering hiring more staff and doctors to deal with the influx. “We work very hard with our staff, with abortion funds, with advocates on the ground to make sure the people who need and want this care can get it,” she said.

Illinois has long been a hub of reproductive care for Midwesterners. According Data from the Illinois Department of Public Health. These numbers are expected to continue to rise as people move in from Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio, Missouri, and even some southern states. To increase access, two Planned Parenthood clinics have opened in recent years along the Illinois border. The state is one of the few in the Midwest where the right to abortion is guaranteed to be protected in the long term.

Many clinical states have taken steps since 2019 to fund abortion services and codify abortion. Vermont, for example, has adopted Act 47which preserves the right to reproductive choice, including abortion, within a year of Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. Several other states followed suit, including California, Connecticut, Oregon, Maine and Illinois. Amy Coney Barrett’s subsequent nomination to the Supreme Court in 2020 cemented the court’s conservative supermajority and emboldened Roe v. Wade legal challenges in 2021.

Some states have already taken steps to ensure access to safe abortions for people crossing borders.

In 2019, New York funded the New York Abortion Access Fund, intended to help low-income abortion seekers from other states travel to New York for services. In March 2022, California has adopted the SB 245, a law that eliminates out-of-pocket abortions for those with private insurance, as well as those on California’s Medicaid. In Oregon, lawmakers passed the Reproductive Health Equity Fund, which is allocating $15 million to expand abortion services, including helping cover the expenses of those traveling to Oregon for abortions. And Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont signed a bill that will protect Connecticut abortion providers and out-of-state patients from being sued by states where abortion, even out-of-state, is illegal.

Related: Abortion in America: How Access and Attitudes Have Changed Over the Centuries

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